Commerical Real Estate

This is the next shoe to drop. That has been the comment spoken since late March and I continuously hear it everyday. Unlike residential real estate, commercial buildings were not built as frequently a single family homes however there may be an over supply. Also, one lessee missing a payment does not ruin an owner (hopefully not the anchor tenant) unlike a single family household. While I do not doubt there is still trouble in the credit environment, the one thing that makes me uncomfortable about this trade is it is oversubscribed. I am not claustrophobic in real life, but I am in markets. Crowded trades bother me, because when the fire alarm goes off I might get trampled on or burned alive. So, I will rather stand by the exit and wait patiently. I am not saying there is no problem or that there will not be large CMBS defaults, however in my experience when general consensus is reached it is sometimes a collection of misconceptions.