Express Yourself

Before I express my opinion let me say that I have absolutely no idea when the recession l will end and really I do not care. I will take long and short positions based on my analysis and experience. But calling the recession is pointless if one does not profit. So if Dennis Kneale believes his claim he should go buy the SPY, SPY calls and any instrument that will benefit when the recession ends. Rather than attack the data I will take a different approach because data can be subjective based on an individual's beliefs and bias. I believe that the market is biased towards optimism. As the markets crashed from late December 2007 until May 2009, guest came on CNBC and recommended buying stocks on a scale of 10 o 1. Rarely, you saw a guest continue to doubt a rebound and even less likely to recommend short positions. I do not know why the market is obsessed with owning stocks, my feeling is that a large portion of money in the game is on the long side. Other large players make money on transactions so they only care about volume and trading activity. Short sellers are despised and even threatened with jail when a poorly run institution fails. But while I do want people back in work, food on tables, care to the sick and other benefits of life, it would be foolish to allow my optimism or desire of a better life for others to influence my trading and blind me to objective facts. Bottom Line: Everyone should leave the belief of the American people and hope for a better future at 9:30 am and pick it back up at 4 pm (of course Monday through Friday).