Land Mines

Like many investors, I turn on the computer or television and see stocks that jump up 100% and say dang why I'm I in XXXX instead of that pharma stock that found the cure to balding. Recently, there have been many pseudo GSEs that have seen values double or triple within weeks. However, while I missed most of these names, I am still very cautious. I am long FNM and have sold calls against the position. But I think the government should wind down both FNM and FRE for various reason, but will save that for another post. But I cannot predict the future so for INVESTING there should be a margin of safety. That means a moderate dividend yield, sizeable amount of cash and book value and market value are at a reasonable proportion. I have experienced trying to catch the tail of a rally only having it turn and bite my position to in half. While my experience differs from others I cannot advocate holding positions that lack fundamental reason.